Paulley, A., Metcalfe, R., Egan, M. (2012) Geological disposal programme design and prioritization in the face of uncertainty: use of structured evidence support logic techniques. Mineralogical Magazine, 76 (8) 3497-3507 doi:10.1180/minmag.2012.076.8.64
| Reference Type | Journal (article/letter/editorial) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Title | Geological disposal programme design and prioritization in the face of uncertainty: use of structured evidence support logic techniques | ||
| Journal | Mineralogical Magazine | ||
| Authors | Paulley, A. | Author | |
| Metcalfe, R. | Author | ||
| Egan, M. | Author | ||
| Year | 2012 (December) | Volume | 76 |
| Issue | 8 | ||
| Publisher | Mineralogical Society | ||
| DOI | doi:10.1180/minmag.2012.076.8.64Search in ResearchGate | ||
| Generate Citation Formats | |||
| Mindat Ref. ID | 244367 | Long-form Identifier | mindat:1:5:244367:0 |
| GUID | 0 | ||
| Full Reference | Paulley, A., Metcalfe, R., Egan, M. (2012) Geological disposal programme design and prioritization in the face of uncertainty: use of structured evidence support logic techniques. Mineralogical Magazine, 76 (8) 3497-3507 doi:10.1180/minmag.2012.076.8.64 | ||
| Plain Text | Paulley, A., Metcalfe, R., Egan, M. (2012) Geological disposal programme design and prioritization in the face of uncertainty: use of structured evidence support logic techniques. Mineralogical Magazine, 76 (8) 3497-3507 doi:10.1180/minmag.2012.076.8.64 | ||
| Abstract/Notes | AbstractProgrammes for the geological disposal of radioactive wastes are by nature extremely complex. A structured approach for making and documenting varied kinds of decisions is required to support programme design and implementation. At each programme stage, the decision-making process must be able to identify and justify key priorities for work, to reduce uncertainties.To support structured decision-making evidence support logic (ESL) has been developed and applied to varied complex projects, nationally and internationally, in several industries. Evidence support logic involves breaking down a hypothesis that informs a decision into a hierarchical 'decision tree'. Examples of hypotheses are 'the geology associated with site x will provide sufficient disposal capacity', 'container x will contain waste form y for z years' and 'the engineered barrier system will provide the required safety functions'. Independent evaluations of confidence 'for' and 'against' bottom-level hypotheses allow the level of remaining uncertainty (or conflict) to be recognized explicitly, and the overall confidence (and uncertainty) relevant to the overall decision, and key sensitivities, to be represented clearly and succinctly.Thus ESL can help (1) break down decisions into a manageable and logical structure, assisting clear presentation; (2) identify key uncertainties and sensitivities to inform prioritization; and (3) test whether the outcomes of specific studies have improved confidence. | ||
See Also
These are possibly similar items as determined by title/reference text matching only.
